Survivor Thoughts from Iowa

Gabon Confessional Analysis

2008-11-11T10:43:00.000-08:00

I was going to post this at Survivor Blows, but there is some sort of internal server error. Which sucks. I don't know that anyone comes here anymore, but who knows, maybe someone will happen by...

So I am really liking this season. And I decided to try confessional analysis again to see if I could figure out who our winner will be. The way it works is this. I count the confessionals and divide them into two categories. Ts are ones that talk about the tribe and what's going on. Ds are specifically about the tribal dynamics and who is in danger of getting booted. What I have found is that people with more Ds go before people with more Ts. I also look for confessionals that are about the wonder of the location or meta-strategy confessionals. These often indicate the winner or at least someone who goes far. I used to put all this on a blog, but the really good seasons are in posts that blogger ate or behind the doors of a private board. (I started this back in season 3.) I should also note that I have not been reading Veruca's Editing thread so I may be unknowingly repeating stuff people are writing there. I like coming at this with a fresh perspective.

Matty – 3T, 0T, 0T, 2T, 4T, 2T, 3T/1D, 7T/1D = 21T/2D
Randy – 4T/2D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 2D, 6T/2D = 15T/11D
Sugar – 1T, 0T, 6T/1D, 1T, 2T, 2T, 3D, 2T/1D = 14T/5D
Crystal – 3T, 0T, 1T/1D, 1T/2D, 3D, 4D, 1T/2D, 4T/2D = 10T/14D
Ken – 2T/2D, 1D, 0T, 2D, 1T/1D, 3T/2D, 3D, 2T/1D = 8T/12D
Susie – 0T, 0T, 0T, 2T, 0T, 1T, 1T, 1T/6D = 5T/6D
Charlie – 1T/1D, 2T/1D, 2D, 1D, 1T, 0T, 1D, 1T/1D = 5T/7D
Corinne – 2T, 1D, 3D, 0T, 0T, 1T/1D, 2D, 3D = 3T/10D
Bob – 2T, 0T, 1D, 0T, 0T, 1T, 2T, 0T = 5T/1D

I have say right now that I think Matty or Randy wins this season. Matty had an extremely important confessional in episode one. While everyone else was talking about themselves, he talked about Gabon being Earth's last Eden and how beautiful it is. He later talked about how the elephants are right outside their camp. Later on, when the elephant comes to visit in the daytime, Matty talks about it in reverential tones - it's "magnificent". He says it makes you appreciate the purity of Gabon. Later he talks about the idol as the apple in Eden and no one wants to be thrown out of Eden. Most recently, he had a confessional about how he's worried he doesn't have much time and every moment is valuable and he has to give it his all. With 21 Ts and only 2 Ds, he's being edited as our winner. If he doesn't make top 3, I'll be shocked.

Randy is the other person I like for a possible winner. While his edit isn't as striking as Matty's, he is the only person left who has had a confessional in every single episode. Randy's confessionals are often about his strategy. Early on he talks about sitting back and watching other people self destruct. Later on, he talks about how you have to adapt and this "crusty old man" can do it. Randy reminds me somewhat of Brian's edit from Thailand. Brian was always talking about his plan for winning and we're getting an inside view into Randy's strategy. And it's not just about specific happenings in the tribe, but meta-strategy confessionals that could be applicable to any season.

The final person who will go a long way in this game is Sugar, but I don't think she will win. We are meant to like her. She's emotional and we are meant to relate to her emotions. She has two journeys - one was the city girl who survives the outdoors - that story seems to be over, but watch for it to pop up again if times get hard. The other is the underestimated player who has more game than anyone gave her credit for. That story seemed over with the flip on Ace, but it's not over yet as she feels she was manipulated by Ken and Crystal. For her story to be complete, she is going to have to avenge Ace.

So who's not long for this game?

Corinne is one who will not win. Her Ds far outweigh her Ts. We're not getting anything from her beyond her thoughts on who should be booted and who her allies are. I could see her going soon especially since her increase in Ds happened in the last two episodes. Charlie is another who is not going to last long. Charlie's entire story was tied to Marcus. The only time we heard anything from him, it had to do with Marcus. Charlie will not last long.

Susie had a big spike in Ds last episode as well. This could be setting her up for a boot soon, but I wonder. She's had a lot of confessionals about making it to the Top 3. To me, it felt like we were getting the beginning of her story - a fight to make it to the end. I don't know whether she will make it or not, but if she were going soon, it would seem like that story would have started earlier. She also had both the wonder of the location confessional and the the meta-strategy confessional. In one episode she talked about her strategy was to work hard around camp. When they went on the helicopter ride, the people who got the "Wow, Gabon is amazing" confessionals were Bob (interesting...) and Susie. Charlie or Corinne could have been given that confessional, but they weren't. So if I had to guess, I'd say Susie makes it further than some people may think.

So what about Crystal and Kenny? Both have more Ds than Ts. Neither one is getting the confessionals that winners get. I pick them for early to mid-jury. And finally Bob. Bob could very well be the final member of the final 3. He's getting that under the radar edit of someone who may make it to the end with no chance of actually winning. It sure doesn't seem like he's going soon.

So according to confessional analysis, the most at risk are:

Corinne
Charlie
Ken
Crystal

The safest are:

Matty
Randy
Sugar
Bob

The one we'll know more about after this episode:

Susie

And it begins again

2008-01-16T07:47:00.000-08:00

Obviously, I skipped Survivor China. It was a good season and I was pleased that Todd won. He was a good player and deserved his victory. Plus, he was a Survivor fan who posted on the boards and it was nice to see one of them win.

The next season that starts in February looks promising. Fans vs. Favorites (although I can only think of one poster who ever considered Johnny Fairplay a "favorite") has potential to be interesting. And it's better than a straight All Stars season like they did last time. I am rooting for the fans at this point, but of course that could change after episode 1.

As far as the Favorites go, I think Johnny Fairplay and Yau-Man will go early for completely different reasons. Everyone will want Fairplay gone because they can't stand him. And everyone will want Yau-Man gone because they know if he makes to the jury, he'll have a good shot of winning it all. And they can use the "we need a strong tribe" excuse to boot him pre-merge. As far as who could go far, I like James and Amanda, because no one will know them very well, and Cirie, because she'll be able to fly under the radar. I think Jonathan and Eliza, if they align, could be a formidable duo. They pull in James, Amanda and Cirie and they run it 'til the merge, at least.

A few other thoughts...

Most Likely to Flip and Support the Favorites: Eliza
Most Likely to Get Booted Because She Refuses to Ally with Men: Ami

Most Likely to Be The Victim of We Don't Need Another Challenge Hog: Ozzy

Most Likely to Have Absolutely No Game Whatsoever: Parvati
Most Likely to Annoy Everyone: Fairplay

And now onto the Fans...

Kathleen looks nuts in her picture. She's gone pre-merge. The other two I am predicting will be booted early are Tracy, Erik and Mary. I think Erik will end up like Ryan Shoulders from... whatever season that was - Pearl Islands, maybe? Anyway he'll be the nerdy guy who gets booted as a liability. Jeff Probst says this about Mary: "She's either going to learn where to fit in this group quickly or she's going to be on the outs for the whole time." My guess is she'll be on the outs. And Tracy is a builder and they never fare well once the structure has been created. I think the controlling alliance will be firefighter Joel, actor Michael, beauty pagaent coach Chet and enigma Natalie. Four is not a majority, so they'll have to pull in one more after a consensus first boot.

So all that being said, here is my unspoiled, total guess pre-season boot order:

The fans are very motivated to beat the favorites and that motivation carries them to victory in the first immunity challenge. First boot is easy - Fairplay is gone as the most annoying and useless in challenges. The favorites rally to win the second challenge and fans have to get rid of someone. They choose Mary who has never been able to fit in with any alliances. Third boot is Yau-Man of the favorites. Losing another challenge does sit well with Eliza and Jonathan, who formed an alliance. The favorites win two in a row and Tracy and Kathleen are quickly voted out by the ruling alliance of Joel, Michael, Chet and Natalie. Jason, Erik and Alexis see they are on the outside looking in. The fans win one and the favorites refuse to let Amber version 2 win All Stars version 2 and vote out Parvati. Then, of course, some sort of twist happens and people end up on the wrong tribe. It's impossible to guess who might be the victims of such a twist, but I'll say Ozzy and Erik get booted next. After that, we'll go with Ami. Over at fans, Michael is getting nervous about Joel as a challenge threat post-merge and when the actor tries to get the fireman voted out, the rest of his alliance sides with Joel and Michael is gone.

Pre-merge boot order:

20. Fairplay
19. Mary
18. Yau-Man
17. Tracy
16. Kathleen
15. Parvati
14. Ozzy
13. Erik
12. Ami
11. Michael

And then they merge. This is where Eliza and Jonathan make their biggest move and join forces with Chet, Natalie, and Alexis. They side with some of the fans and betray the favorites. Amanda is the first victim since James has immunity. Joel is taken out next as they agreed to eliminate one of each tribe first. Eliza gets backstabbed next. Then the two challenge threats Jason and James are booted. Natalie is taken out next as the remaining contestants see her as a threat to win it all. Our final four is Jonathan, Chet, Alexis and the forgotten Cirie. Alexis gets booted as everyone see her as the most likeable of the remaining four, leaving Jonathan, Chet and Cirie to face the jury.

10. Amanda
9. Joel
8. Eliza
7. Jason

6. James

5. Natalie

4. Alexis

3. Cirie

2. Chet
1. Jonathan

I think Jonathan could win it all.

Survivor: China

2007-09-04T11:25:00.000-07:00

So I don't know if I'll be blogging about the upcoming season. Maybe I'll decide after I see episode one.

The first boot has been spoiled already, but from what I can tell, so far that's it. Which is good.

My preseason prediction of the winner is Dave Cruser.

It's finally over...

2007-05-13T09:16:00.000-07:00

I doubt anyone is still reading this blog (since there's not much to read), but just for the sake of completeness, here are my finale picks.

Final five boot: Boo

Final four boot: Yau Man (Dreamz wins immunity and breaks his word)

Final three who face the jury: Cassanda, Dreamz, Earl

Rocky votes: Earl
Lisi votes: Earl
Michelle votes: Earl
Edgardo votes: Earl
Mookie votes: Earl
Alex votes: Earl
Stacy votes: Earl
Boo votes: Earl
Yau Man votes: Earl

Earl wins in a unanimous vote.

The editing pointed to an Earl win as far back as episode one when he was shown standing on top of the mountain and calling himself King of Fiji. There have been many other shots of him high above everyone else. If anyone else wins, it'll be shocking.

Edited to add:

This is what I wrote after the first episode in my confessional analysis:

Now let's talk about Earl. You didn't think I was going to forget him, didya? Earl got two amazing confessionals in this episode, either one of which would have me pointing to him as someone who was going to last a long time. Put together and I have to wonder if he wins this thing. His first confessional came near the beginning of the episode. He talked about how the island was their home and you want to check all of it out. It was interspersed with a scene of him on top of the island, smiling, and at one point he says "I'm the King of Fiji... of an unnamed island." Sounds like someone who could win this thing, right? Except it was followed by Dreamz saying "I'm standing the highest" and a shot of the kid standing a rock above Earl (and Rita and Anthony). So is this our endgame? Dreamz vs. Earl?

And now...

2007-05-10T09:47:00.000-07:00

It's time for Stacy to go home...

I pick...

2007-05-03T08:03:00.000-07:00

Alex to get the boot.There appears to be some disagreement this week, but Alex is most likely choice as he's alone and friendless.

I think I'll pick...

2007-04-26T06:34:00.000-07:00

...Mookie to go home this week. It should be Alex or the Mookster and I think Alex will pull off something to keep himself alive another week.

I'm picking...

2007-04-19T10:36:00.001-07:00

...Edgardo to get the boot.

Sounds like it'll be a cool episode. Too bad I foolishly read the spoiler ahead of time.

This week's pick

2007-04-12T06:49:00.000-07:00

It appears Michelle gets Shii Anned this week.

This week's pick

2007-04-03T11:36:00.000-07:00

Lisi goes home.

Shocking.

However, it appears there's some doubt about who gets booted next week. So that might be interesting. Maybe.

This week's pick

2007-03-29T06:36:00.000-07:00

I pick James to get the boot.

Mostly just so that I keep pace with everyone else. The finale will be the showdown, I guess, since the winner is the only thing that's not spoiled.

Um, let's see....

2007-03-21T06:54:00.000-07:00

I pick... oh gosh, I don't know... hmmm... maybe... Anthony?

Okay, sure. Anthony. You talked me into it.

Well, so much for that...

2007-03-07T13:33:00.000-08:00

Wow. I knew there were spoilers floating around but I didn't realize the entire bootlist is out there.

I've seen it so I guess I'm done here for this season. No point in analyzing confessionals to guess who gets booted when we know who's going to get booted.

What's a real shame about it is that it seems like it will be a good season for those who haven't been spoiled. I like the people who make it to the end.
I think the only way for me to completely avoid the spoilers is to delete the bookmarks of the Survivor sites I've been visiting for the last few years.

Most of the people who used to obssess about Survivor with me gave up on the show a while ago. I don't know why I've kept hanging on. I think I'm nearing that end point myself.

Um, this week I pick Rita. It's a shock, I know.

Episode four... prediction?

2007-02-28T07:53:00.000-08:00

When you try to avoid spoilers, it doesn't always work. I play a number of Survivor games at SurvivorBlows and when you see an overwhelming number of the other contestants giving the same answer for the game, well, it makes it clear there's a spoiler out there.

If I were just going on confessional analysis and the previews, I would guess that Gary quits and Rita gets booted. However, it's clear that my long shot confessional analysis victim is the boot this week. So...

Gary quits.

Liliana gets booted.

Which seems strange to me since I can't imagine Moto losing the immunity challenge. I guess all will be clear Thursday night.

Fiji Confessional Analysis, Episode 3

2007-02-24T06:54:00.000-08:00

If I were doing a points system, which I can't seem to figure out, I would give Michelle extra points for her very long confessional and the humor in it ("My momma doesn't want me to die out here") and Dreamz because of his this-is-what-the-game-is-all-about confessional. But the point thing just doesn't work no matter which way I do it. Anyway, here's where we are after three episodes.

Moto
Alex - 2T, 2T, 2T/1D = 6T/1D
Dreamz - 3T, 1T/1D, 1T = 5T/1D
Boo - 1T, 3T, 1T = 5T
Cassandra - 2T, 0T, 1T =3T
Lisi - 1T, 1T, 1T = 3T
Edgardo - 2T/1D, 0T, 0T = 2T/1D
Stacy - 0T, 0T, 1T =1T
Gary - 1D, 0T, 0T = 1D
Liliana - 0T, 0T, 0T = 0T

Ravu
Earl - 4T, 4T, 2T = 10T
Rocky - 4T/2D, 2T/1D, 2T = 8T/3D
Anthony - 4T, 3T/3D, 1D = 7T/4D
Yau Man - 1T/1D, 2T, 2T = 5T/1D
Rita - 2D, 0T, 2D = 4D
Michelle - 1T, 1D, 1T = 2T/1D
Mookie - 0T, 1T, 1D = 1T/1D

Sylvia - 2T/1D, 1T/3D, 4D = 3T/8D
Erica - 2T/4D, 2T = 4T/4D
Jessica - 2T/1D

At Moto, confessional analysis says Gary is at risk again. Not that that is any suprise after last episode made it clear he's not doing well. Other than that, the only person who stands out is Liliana who hasn't had a single confessional. There was one season where it seemed like every week the person who didn't talk at all got booted unexpectedly. I still think Gary is the more likely boot, but Liliana is the dark horse boot. Dreamz got a very important confessional. He said, "Our morale is up and their morale is down. Bam! There's it is right there... the whole game." At the other tribe we had Mookie questioning Anthony's will to win. The point seems to be that this is a mental game more than anything else. With the men dominating the game (only women have been booted so far), athletic prowess might be a wash, but whichever man has the internal strength is going to come out on top. Cassandra is being cast as the heart of the tribe; we're supposed to like her so I think she's got some legs. Lisi is the matter of fact narrator. Hard to say if she's going to go far. I am hoping to see more in depth confessionals soon as she is my pick to make it to the end. Stacy finally spoke which took her out of the danger land that Liliana finds herself in. Alex was chosen to narrate most of Gary's breakdown which points to him lasting longer in the game. Boo is a pretty steady narrator about how the tribe is feeling. If you compare his confessionals to Lisi's, at this point I'd pick Boo to go further because they are about more than facts.

At Ravu, Earl got an interesting confessional where he called his tribe "begging children". I am thinking he's not really in an alliance with any of them. I wonder if his alliance is actually on the other tribe and he's just trying to survive this disfunctional tribe until he can get back to his alliance. Michelle had only one confessional, but it was loooonnng. Mookie got one confessional but it was a D, which isn't good for him. However, Rita is clearly the next boot from their tribe with 4Ds. And she went her own way by voting against Earl; that's never a good sign. Like Boo at Moto, Yau Man talks about how their tribe is feeling. Rocky's main confessional this episode portrayed him as the guy who has fate turning on him. He talks about how the other tribe better watch out .... and then they lose the challenge. I doubt Rocky wins this thing. Anthony's personal arc seems to be really beginning this episode and from the preview, it looks like it continues next episode. In the first two episodes, he was a neutral narrator of the tribe. This episode he became a character in the action. The question is how long will his arc go? This could be the start of his climb to the winner's spot or it could be the start of a short arc. Hopefully next episode will give us some sort of clue.

So who could possibly win this thing based on editing of the first three episodes. It's still pretty wide open, but I think we can safely rule out: Stacy, Liliana, Gary and Edgardo (unless something major happens with him soon) at Moto. At Ravu, you can give up on Rocky, Michelle, Mookie and Rita. Who does that leave us with?

Alex
Dreamz
Boo
Lisi
Cassandra
Earl
Anthony
Yau Man

And finally, here's who's at risk for episode 4:

Rita
Gary
Liliana (long shot)

Episode three pick

2007-02-20T05:58:00.000-08:00

It could be Gary at Moto going home. There's some medical emergency and in the preview Gary appears to say "I can't breathe." At least I think it's him talking, but can't be sure as it's a voiceover. The image shown during the v-o is Gary, though. Plus confessional analysis points to his boot, so there's supporting evidence.

The safe choice at Ravu would be Sylvia. Confessional analysis points to her. We know her tribe doesn't like her. She's most likely going home. The exciting pick would be Rita because confessional analysis likes her for a boot, too.

Honestly, I have no real idea who it's going to be.

I guess I'll go with Sylvia.

Fiji Confessional Analysis, Episode 2

2007-02-18T07:54:00.000-08:00

Episode two gives us clear indications who might be leaving from each tribe. Still haven't had a chance to do the point system. It's still percolating in my brain.

Moto
Dreamz - 3T, 1T/1D = 4T/1D
Boo - 1T, 3T = 4T
Alex - 2T, 2T = 4T
Edgardo - 2T/1D, 0T = 2T/1D
Cassandra - 2T, 0T =2T
Lisi - 1T, 1T = 2T
Gary - 1D, 0T = 1D
Liliana - 0T, 0T = 0T
Stacy - 0T, 0T =0T

Ravu
Anthony - 4T, 3T/3D = 7T/3D
Rocky - 4T/2D, 2T/1D = 6T/3D
Earl - 4T, 4T = 8T
Sylvia - 2T/1D, 1T/3D = 3T/4D
Yau Man - 1T/1D, 2T = 3T/1D
Michelle - 1T, 1D = 1T/1D
Rita - 2D, 0T = 2D
Mookie - 0T, 1T = 1T

Erica - 2T/4D, 2T = 4T/4D
Jessica - 2T/1D

Let's look at Moto first. The only person in danger based on confessional analysis is Gary who has only one D and no Ts. Half of the tribe disappeared last episode with Cassandra, Edgardo, Stacy, and Lilliana getting zero confessionals. Stacy and Lilliana haven't had a single confessional yet. Honestly, that's almost as bad as getting a lot of Ds. I don't think either one will last past merge. While Dreamz had only two confessionals, one of them went on forever. I've seen people get four confessionals in an episode that in total didn't last as long as one of Dreamz's confessionals. His story is important to the show, but it seems to be a very personal story and not really one that connects to the game as a whole. Boo and Lisi are the main narrators of the tribe with Alex taking a smaller role this episode. His confessionals were about Boo's mishaps in contrast to the other two who talked about the tribe as a whole. Of course, Alex's confessionals in episode one were about the tribe as a whole, so it's safe to say all three of them are narrators at this point.

Over at Ravu things are getting ugly. But first, the good stuff. Earl is clearly a long term player. Did you catch the shot of him on top of the mountain when they were looking for food? They want us to like him. He got four Ts and no Ds. I wouldn't call him the main narrator for the tribe however. That role is clearly Anthony and like many pre-merge narrators before him, I wonder if he'll be the one to get booted right around the merge. Rocky is a narrator, too, but they don't count on him for what's going on as much as they do Anthony. If it were a broadcast booth, Anthony's the play by play guy and Rocky's the color commentary. One thing I find interesting is how it seems like Mookie is driving the decision making early on but he's not getting the confessionals to go with it. I don't have high hopes for Mookie. He strikes me as someone who will become the victim of a twist. He ends up getting sent to the other tribe and gets booted, for example. He's not an endgame player. As for who's in danger at Ravu, I can point to two people based on CA: Rita and Sylvia.

In danger for episode three:

Gary
Rita
Sylvia

Week 2 pick

2007-02-13T13:24:00.000-08:00

I'm choosing Erica to get the boot for the following reasons:

1) Confessional analysis says so
2) She is clearly on the outside looking in at Moto or Ravu, whichever tribe she's on
3) The previews show that her tribe is very weak which suggests they lose again

Fiji Confessional Analysis, Episode 1

2007-02-10T05:42:00.000-08:00

Confessional analysis. Where I examine who said what and what it all means. You can skip the next part if you've read past seasons of CA.

What is Confessional Analysis?

By analyzing the content and number of Survivor confessionals, one can find patterns that point to who will last longer in the show. It began with dividing the confessionals into two types: tribal history confessionals (Ts) and tribe dynamics confessionals (Ds). What I discovered during season three (which is when I first started this) is that generally people with a lot of Ds go before people with a lot of Ts. Also, people who are not getting very many confessionals will be safe until we hear from them. This has only been one exception to the latter rule - Zoe from S4, who never got very many confessionals, had no real storyline, and was still booted. The Zoe Exception still rankles me.

A couple other things to look for:

1) There is usually pre-merge narrator. They get a lot of Ts early on and it looks like they'll go far and then wham, the person is voted out shortly after the merge. If someone is definitely narrating and then the Ds start piling up, watch out!

2) People who get confessionals about the theme of the show usually last longer. This was very clear in Africa and Thailand. Africa was all about the culture of the area. Lex, Ethan, and, to a lesser extent, Tom got those confessionals. That's three of the final four. In Thailand, it was all about how to win the game. The culture wasn't emphasized as much after the elders were allowed to pick tribes. Brian was constantly talking about his strategy - his meta-strategy confessionals convinced me he was going to go far. Brian, as we know, won.

3) In eleven seasons, the only winner who didn't get a confessional in the first episode was Tina.

Here are the codes:

T= tribal history confessional
D= tribal dynamic confessional
*=theme confessional

Okay, now onto the specifics of this season...

Theme confessionals this time around are about the have vs. have not factor. It will be interesting to see how this comes up.

I am toying with trying something new this year - a subjective rating system where I assign points to confessionals based on different factors. More points=last longer. I may unveil that iedea with episode two.

Moto
Dreamz - 3T
Edgardo - 2T/1D
Alex - 2T
Cassandra - 2T
Lisi - 1T
Boo - 1T
Gary - 1D
Liliana - 0T
Stacy - 0T

Ravu
Rocky - 4T/2D
Erica - 2T/4D
Anthony - 4T
Earl - 4T
Sylvia - 2T/1D
Yau Man - 1T/1D
Rita - 2D
Michelle - 1T
Mookie - 0T

Jessica - 2T/1D

It's hard to get much info from the first episode, but a few things did stand out. First of all, sorry Stacy and Liliana fans. They're not winning this one. No confessionals in the first episode is a baaaad sign. And of course the same holds true for my pre-season favorite, Mookie. Very sad.

The narration was shared on the Moto tribe, with Edgardo and Alex taking on most of that task. Cassandra had one narration confessional and one that was specific to her situation. Dreamz had the most confessionals on that tribe, but they were all centered on him, not about the tribe's experience. He's on a personal journey that may or may not have much to do with anyone else. The other thing that stood out on this tribe was Gary's one lone D confessional. His tribe didn't go to TC so any Ds showing up over there are noteworthy. He made a comment about Sylvia dominating things. This served too purposes: 1) it hinted at a potentially early departure for him by showing he's talking about tribal dynamics and 2) it set up a potential reason for booting Sylvia when she returns to the other tribe.

Over at Ravu, the narrators were clearly Anthony and Rocky. Anthony, however, did not get the Ds that Rocky did. Rocky's Ds came from a problem he had with Dreamz, but I think that was more about him than Dreamz. For one thing, we saw no other confessionals of people complaining about Dreamz. And Rocky summed up the experience by centering on himself. He talked about how he hates to let emotions show, but it's hard because of the conditions they're dealing with. So really I think that was more about Rocky and his emotions than Dreamz and his crazy behavior. The other thing that's being set up for next episode is Erica's boot. She got waaaay too many Ds and she's already talked about how she's apart from the tribe. ("Everyone else thinks the new island is great, but I'm pissed off" comment.) Plus she didn't vote for Jessica like nearly everyone else. (Rocky's vote for Mookie was interesting, too. Clearly he blames Mookie for Jessica's boot which is understandable since the Mookster is the one who suggested Jessica get booted.) Rita is the other person at risk on Ravu because of CA.

Now let's talk about Earl. You didn't think I was going to forget him, didya? Earl got two amazing confessionals in this episode, either one of which would have me pointing to him as someone who was going to last a long time. Put together and I have to wonder if he wins this thing. His first confessional came near the beginning of the episode. He talked about how the island was their home and you want to check all of it out. It was interspersed with a scene of him on top of the island, smiling, and at one point he says "I'm the King of Fiji... of an unnamed island." Sounds like someone who could win this thing, right? Except it was followed by Dreamz saying "I'm standing the highest" and a shot of the kid standing a rock above Earl (and Rita and Anthony). So is this our endgame? Dreamz vs. Earl?

And the second confessional tells us how Earl's going to play the game. The last confessional of the episode went to Earl and he said "There are a lot of actors here. Lot of poker faces. This is my poker face." And he's got a damn good poker face. Earl sets up how the game will be played - deception - and shows he's got the tools to win. He's my post episode 1 pick to win. Of course, there's probably a spoiler out there that says he goes next...

In danger for episode 2:

Gary
Erica
Rita

Some predictions...

2007-02-08T10:57:00.000-08:00

Okay, after watching the first five minutes and going over my quick hits on the castaways, I am ready to make some predictions for this season. These are not spoilers.

My guess at the boot order:

Jessica (spoiled already)
Erica (Probst made a comment about her being willing to vote against the majority just to make a point. Bad move....)
Sylvia (seems bossy)
Gary (only one old guy is making it far and you're not the one who grew up on a tropical island)
Liliana
Rita
Anthony

Jury begins here...

Boo
Stacy
Dreamz (doesn't know how to compromise and it kills him)
Mookie (didn't get an early confessional which is not a good sign)
Michelle
Alex
James (eventually they get sick of him and boot him)
Earl (can't get a good feel for him. Moved him up because of an early confessional...)
Cassandra (makes it far on personality alone - so smiley!)

Final Three...

Edgardo (got the first confessional)
Lisi (just have a good feeling about her ability to fly under the radar and seem unthreatening)
Yau Man (in a final three against the UTR player and the evil guy, Yau Man comes out on top)

This season will dominated by the men until the end when a couple of win sneak into the final episode. But a man will win. And I could easily see it being Cassandra in the Final Three instead of Lisi.

Overall, I'm liking the set up. Hoping for a good first episode tonight!

Boot pick for episode 1

2007-02-08T08:08:00.000-08:00

All credit for this pick goes to Survivor Phoenix. With luck, I'll be able to avoid any other spoilers that are out there. This one it sounds like you can take to the bank.

Jessica goes home!

First 5 minutes of Survivor Fiji

2007-02-07T14:46:00.000-08:00

You can watch the first five minutes of Survivor Fiji here.

First impression is that this will be a season dominated by the men. It seemed like more men got confessionals in the first five minutes than women.

Quick hits on the women of Survivor Fiji

2007-02-07T09:55:00.000-08:00

(For quick hits on the men, go here. Thanks to SurvivorFever for the pics.)

Cassandra is a 42 year old Civil Engineer Manager from Los Angeles, CA. Wow, what a boring bio. She's proud of her family, but doesn't even list anything all that interesting about them. Is she just proud that they exist? I must say she does have a winning smile, so that could help her.

Erica is a 27 year old Non-profit Fundraiser from Lake Charles, LA. She's a Katrina survivor. Other than that, pretty forgettable.

Jessica is a 27 year old Fashion Stylist from Los Angeles, CA. I'm not going to waste my time reading her bio.

Liliana is 25 year old ex-Marine from Oxnard, CA. Okay, she's really a loan officer, but she was a Marine and that's far more interesting. Says she served for 8 years which means she joined when she was 17. There's something about her that I like.

Lisi is a 35 year old Customer Service Rep for a Psychic Hotline. Seriously. She's also a crazy punk rocker. She looks very middle aged mom in her photo, but that could work to her advantage since we know a wild one lurks beneath.

Michelle is a 23 year old student from Cincinnati, OH. She looks so perky - I can't stand it. She loves 80s music so she can't be all bad. I have a good feeling about her.

Rita is a 38 year old single mom from San Antonio, TX. She coaches girls for beauty pageants. She was also in Marked for Death. My feeling is she's marked for elimination in this game.

Stacy is a 27 year old Interactive Internet Producer (huh?) from Boulder, CO. She likes Guinness, which is her one saving grace in my eyes.

Sylvia is a 52 year old Architect from Ross, CA. She looks like the type who would take charge and rub everybody the wrong way. She just learned how to swim. My eyes are rolling.

Early boots:
Jessica
Sylvia
Rita
Erica

Jury:
Cassandra
Stacy
Michelle
Lisi
Liliana

My pre-season picks for the winner:

(I'll narrow it down to one before the premiere tomorrow.)

Quick hits on the men of Survivor Fiji

2007-02-06T11:30:00.000-08:00

(For quick hits on the women, go here.)

Gary is a 55 year old school bus driver. Anyone who can put up with all those annoying kids has the potential to go far. He was also a barber for a while. And served in Vietnam. Based on that picture, it doesn't look like he likes it out there.

Alex is a 28 year old attorney from Los Angeles who went to Harvard. His favorite movie is Rocky III... Something about Mr. T really appeals to you, Alex? He looks kind of slimy, doesn't he?

James is a 28 year old bartender from Los Angeles, California. His picture on the CBS site screams snake! Don't trust him. I have heard that he sounds like Rocky Balboa so maybe Alex and he will get along. One of his favorite games is Chutes and Ladders. Um, okay, James. Whatever.

Mookie is a 25 year old Loan Manager from Chicago, IL. I have a whole post about Mookie. He's the one I'm rooting for pre-game.

Yau Man is a 54 year old Computer Engineer from Martinez, CA. He's originally from Borneo where Survivor Season 1 took place. Good omen? He'll be great at ping pong challenges according to his bio. Seems like a real underdog with all these big guys around. I'm rooting for him.

Anthony is a 32 year old Expert Witness Locator from Compton, California. That's a job? I imagine it's a lot easier in the post-Google era. Anthony enjoys Live Action Roleplaying. I can't believe he admitted that.

Boo is a 34 year old Construction Worker from Lafayette, LA. From his bio: "He considers himself to be a cerebral athlete, a great problem solver and strong both mentally and physically." No one is buying it, Boo. You got a degree in General Studies. What grown man wants to be known as Boo? Is he a big fan of Harpee Lee?

Dreamz is a 25 year old cheerleading coach from Wilmington, NC. He grew up as a homeless street performer. I'm guessing he's going to be a breakout character this season.

Earl is a 35 year old Advertising Exec from Santa Monica, CA. He's a member of the American Society of Composers, Authors and Publishers (ASCAP). (Careful, their spies are everywhere!*) He listed a million answers for each favorite. Pick one, Earl, and go with it. Honestly, he strikes me as pretty boring.

Edgardo is a 28 year old Advertising Exec from Miami Beach, FL. Another ad exec? Best story about Edgardo: He once proved to his best friend that the friend's girl was no good for him by sleeping with her. So yeah, he's perfect for Survivor.

Early Boots:
Earl
Gary
Anthony

Jury:
Boo
Dreamz
Edgardo
Alex
James
Mookie
Yau Man

My pre-season picks for the winner:

(I'll narrow it down to one before the premiere tomorrow...)

Mookie

2007-01-11T18:49:00.000-08:00

So I decided to do some digging to see what I could find out about my current favorite Survivor - Mookie Lee.

First of all, his real name is Hyun. Apparently his parents didn't choose to bestow Mookie on their bouncing baby boy. Second, his volleyball team was the runner up in IHSA high school volleyball tournament in 1999. Here's Mookie in volleyball togs:

So we know he was an athlete in high school. He was also an athlete during his college years, having participated in a basketball league at the Covenant Fellowship Church in Urbana, IL. (His team did not do well...) I couldn't find any pictures of him on that team though. This may also indicate that he is a religious man.

I can also tell you that Mookie is a very common name for pets! Ah, what nuggets of knowledge Google provides...

Here are a couple more pictures of Mookie, courtest of SurvivorFever:

More contestants identified

2007-01-11T07:28:00.000-08:00

A poster at SurvivorSucks by the name of The4Kingdoms has identified a number of Survivors by using MySpace. Here they are:

Erica Durousseau, a 27 year-old businesswoman from Lake Charles, LA.

Lisi Linares, a 30ish musician from Los Angeles, CA. Check out Lisi's website.

Perhaps this is her?

Earl Cole, a 35 year-old composer from Santa Monica, CA.

Edgardo Rivera, a 28 year-old guy from Miami Beach, FL.

Also, Anthony Robinson and Yau-Man Chan, who do not appear to have been featured in the promos, have been spoiled. Check out TDT's website for more about them.

Early word is Lisi and Stacy liked each other out there. Possible alliance?

I'm still rooting for Mookie.

Names to go with faces...

2007-01-09T05:42:00.000-08:00

Good ol' SurvivorPhoenix has spoiled some of the contestants. Here they are:

Stacy Kimball, 27 year-old advertising producer from the snow covered state of Colorado.

Jessica DeBen, 27 year-old makeup artist from Los Angeles, CA. The sour faced one...

Michelle 'Piper' Yi, 23 year-old fashion student from Cincinnati, OH.

Rita Verreos, 38 year-old model/actress from San Antonio, TX. She's also been a pageant coach so she knows how to be cutthroat....

Mookie Lee, 24 year-old finance guy from Chicago, IL. Hometown boy!

Alex Angarita, 28 year-old attorney from Santa Monica, CA.

All credit for this spoiling to SurvivorPhoenix, TrueDorkTimes, and posters Glutwein and MayanSun from SurvivorSucks.

I don't know about you guys, but I'm pulling for Mookie to win. Go Mookie the Wookie!

The cast of Survivor: Fiji

2006-12-29T13:04:00.000-08:00

The preview shown at the finale actually gave us some shots of the contestants. This is very unusual. Clearly, CBS doesn't care that much about spoilers anymore. They also don't like blondes, I guess. Nary a single one. That's got to be a first...

Here they are with my, um, insightful comments...

Here are our three thoughtful characters:

You're no Yul, my friend...

She may be serious here, but we have pictures of her flirting with a boy later...

Immediately, I want to root for him to win. I don't know why, but the image they chose makes me think this guy is important to the show.

Whoever said asians can't be bimbos?

He looks like a bruiser from the Mafia stuck in paradise...

Here are our three Crest commercial characters:

Love the fro, babe.

You're going home early...

Immediate threat, but I bet he's really likeable, too.

............................
He's the smart, strategic leader. ....She's going to real fun to live with...

I got nothing to say about these two.

The guy in the middle might be the same bruiser guy from above. Not sure.

Red-headed contestant? Or someone with a buff around her head?

And finally, an ironclad prediction. Here's your under the radar Final Four Survivor... so UTR, you can't even see her face!

New look

2006-12-26T13:11:00.000-08:00

I've changed the look of the blog and all of the old stuff is archived here. Except something strange has happened and the posts aren't viewable. I still have all of them so eventually I'll figure out how to make 'em viewable again.

I have no idea if making it sparkly and new will mean I'll be more active on the blog. Don't count on it. But I have a week off from work so I have to do something to fill the time. Working in academia has its benefits.

There's a lot of info out there for Survivor: Fiji already and I'll be posting about it soon.

In the meantime, thanks everyone for reading my ramblings. When I get motivated, I really enjoy writing about this crazy TV show. I think it's easily one of the most unique TV experiences of all time when you factor in the spoiling side of things. Still a phenomenon after all these years.