Gabon Confessional Analysis

I was going to post this at Survivor Blows, but there is some sort of internal server error. Which sucks. I don't know that anyone comes here anymore, but who knows, maybe someone will happen by...

So I am really liking this season. And I decided to try confessional analysis again to see if I could figure out who our winner will be. The way it works is this. I count the confessionals and divide them into two categories. Ts are ones that talk about the tribe and what's going on. Ds are specifically about the tribal dynamics and who is in danger of getting booted. What I have found is that people with more Ds go before people with more Ts. I also look for confessionals that are about the wonder of the location or meta-strategy confessionals. These often indicate the winner or at least someone who goes far. I used to put all this on a blog, but the really good seasons are in posts that blogger ate or behind the doors of a private board. (I started this back in season 3.) I should also note that I have not been reading Veruca's Editing thread so I may be unknowingly repeating stuff people are writing there. I like coming at this with a fresh perspective.


Matty – 3T, 0T, 0T, 2T, 4T, 2T, 3T/1D, 7T/1D = 21T/2D
Randy – 4T/2D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 2D, 6T/2D = 15T/11D
Sugar – 1T, 0T, 6T/1D, 1T, 2T, 2T, 3D, 2T/1D = 14T/5D
Crystal – 3T, 0T, 1T/1D, 1T/2D, 3D, 4D, 1T/2D, 4T/2D = 10T/14D
Ken – 2T/2D, 1D, 0T, 2D, 1T/1D, 3T/2D, 3D, 2T/1D = 8T/12D
Susie – 0T, 0T, 0T, 2T, 0T, 1T, 1T, 1T/6D = 5T/6D
Charlie – 1T/1D, 2T/1D, 2D, 1D, 1T, 0T, 1D, 1T/1D = 5T/7D
Corinne – 2T, 1D, 3D, 0T, 0T, 1T/1D, 2D, 3D = 3T/10D
Bob – 2T, 0T, 1D, 0T, 0T, 1T, 2T, 0T = 5T/1D

I have say right now that I think Matty or Randy wins this season. Matty had an extremely important confessional in episode one. While everyone else was talking about themselves, he talked about Gabon being Earth's last Eden and how beautiful it is. He later talked about how the elephants are right outside their camp. Later on, when the elephant comes to visit in the daytime, Matty talks about it in reverential tones - it's "magnificent". He says it makes you appreciate the purity of Gabon. Later he talks about the idol as the apple in Eden and no one wants to be thrown out of Eden. Most recently, he had a confessional about how he's worried he doesn't have much time and every moment is valuable and he has to give it his all. With 21 Ts and only 2 Ds, he's being edited as our winner. If he doesn't make top 3, I'll be shocked.

Randy is the other person I like for a possible winner. While his edit isn't as striking as Matty's, he is the only person left who has had a confessional in every single episode. Randy's confessionals are often about his strategy. Early on he talks about sitting back and watching other people self destruct. Later on, he talks about how you have to adapt and this "crusty old man" can do it. Randy reminds me somewhat of Brian's edit from Thailand. Brian was always talking about his plan for winning and we're getting an inside view into Randy's strategy. And it's not just about specific happenings in the tribe, but meta-strategy confessionals that could be applicable to any season.

The final person who will go a long way in this game is Sugar, but I don't think she will win. We are meant to like her. She's emotional and we are meant to relate to her emotions. She has two journeys - one was the city girl who survives the outdoors - that story seems to be over, but watch for it to pop up again if times get hard. The other is the underestimated player who has more game than anyone gave her credit for. That story seemed over with the flip on Ace, but it's not over yet as she feels she was manipulated by Ken and Crystal. For her story to be complete, she is going to have to avenge Ace.

So who's not long for this game?

Corinne is one who will not win. Her Ds far outweigh her Ts. We're not getting anything from her beyond her thoughts on who should be booted and who her allies are. I could see her going soon especially since her increase in Ds happened in the last two episodes. Charlie is another who is not going to last long. Charlie's entire story was tied to Marcus. The only time we heard anything from him, it had to do with Marcus. Charlie will not last long.

Susie had a big spike in Ds last episode as well. This could be setting her up for a boot soon, but I wonder. She's had a lot of confessionals about making it to the Top 3. To me, it felt like we were getting the beginning of her story - a fight to make it to the end. I don't know whether she will make it or not, but if she were going soon, it would seem like that story would have started earlier. She also had both the wonder of the location confessional and the the meta-strategy confessional. In one episode she talked about her strategy was to work hard around camp. When they went on the helicopter ride, the people who got the "Wow, Gabon is amazing" confessionals were Bob (interesting...) and Susie. Charlie or Corinne could have been given that confessional, but they weren't. So if I had to guess, I'd say Susie makes it further than some people may think.

So what about Crystal and Kenny? Both have more Ds than Ts. Neither one is getting the confessionals that winners get. I pick them for early to mid-jury. And finally Bob. Bob could very well be the final member of the final 3. He's getting that under the radar edit of someone who may make it to the end with no chance of actually winning. It sure doesn't seem like he's going soon.

So according to confessional analysis, the most at risk are:

Corinne
Charlie
Ken
Crystal

The safest are:

Matty
Randy
Sugar
Bob

The one we'll know more about after this episode:

Susie

And it begins again

Obviously, I skipped Survivor China. It was a good season and I was pleased that Todd won. He was a good player and deserved his victory. Plus, he was a Survivor fan who posted on the boards and it was nice to see one of them win.

The next season that starts in February looks promising. Fans vs. Favorites (although I can only think of one poster who ever considered Johnny Fairplay a "favorite") has potential to be interesting. And it's better than a straight All Stars season like they did last time. I am rooting for the fans at this point, but of course that could change after episode 1.

As far as the Favorites go, I think Johnny Fairplay and Yau-Man will go early for completely different reasons. Everyone will want Fairplay gone because they can't stand him. And everyone will want Yau-Man gone because they know if he makes to the jury, he'll have a good shot of winning it all. And they can use the "we need a strong tribe" excuse to boot him pre-merge. As far as who could go far, I like James and Amanda, because no one will know them very well, and Cirie, because she'll be able to fly under the radar. I think Jonathan and Eliza, if they align, could be a formidable duo. They pull in James, Amanda and Cirie and they run it 'til the merge, at least.

A few other thoughts...

Most Likely to Flip and Support the Favorites: Eliza
Most Likely to Get Booted Because She Refuses to Ally with Men: Ami

Most Likely to Be The Victim of We Don't Need Another Challenge Hog: Ozzy

Most Likely to Have Absolutely No Game Whatsoever: Parvati
Most Likely to Annoy Everyone: Fairplay

And now onto the Fans...

Kathleen looks nuts in her picture. She's gone pre-merge. The other two I am predicting will be booted early are Tracy, Erik and Mary. I think Erik will end up like Ryan Shoulders from... whatever season that was - Pearl Islands, maybe? Anyway he'll be the nerdy guy who gets booted as a liability. Jeff Probst says this about Mary: "She's either going to learn where to fit in this group quickly or she's going to be on the outs for the whole time." My guess is she'll be on the outs. And Tracy is a builder and they never fare well once the structure has been created. I think the controlling alliance will be firefighter Joel, actor Michael, beauty pagaent coach Chet and enigma Natalie. Four is not a majority, so they'll have to pull in one more after a consensus first boot.

So all that being said, here is my unspoiled, total guess pre-season boot order:

The fans are very motivated to beat the favorites and that motivation carries them to victory in the first immunity challenge. First boot is easy - Fairplay is gone as the most annoying and useless in challenges. The favorites rally to win the second challenge and fans have to get rid of someone. They choose Mary who has never been able to fit in with any alliances. Third boot is Yau-Man of the favorites. Losing another challenge does sit well with Eliza and Jonathan, who formed an alliance. The favorites win two in a row and Tracy and Kathleen are quickly voted out by the ruling alliance of Joel, Michael, Chet and Natalie. Jason, Erik and Alexis see they are on the outside looking in. The fans win one and the favorites refuse to let Amber version 2 win All Stars version 2 and vote out Parvati. Then, of course, some sort of twist happens and people end up on the wrong tribe. It's impossible to guess who might be the victims of such a twist, but I'll say Ozzy and Erik get booted next. After that, we'll go with Ami. Over at fans, Michael is getting nervous about Joel as a challenge threat post-merge and when the actor tries to get the fireman voted out, the rest of his alliance sides with Joel and Michael is gone.

Pre-merge boot order:

20. Fairplay
19. Mary
18. Yau-Man
17. Tracy
16. Kathleen
15. Parvati
14. Ozzy
13. Erik
12. Ami
11. Michael

And then they merge. This is where Eliza and Jonathan make their biggest move and join forces with Chet, Natalie, and Alexis. They side with some of the fans and betray the favorites. Amanda is the first victim since James has immunity. Joel is taken out next as they agreed to eliminate one of each tribe first. Eliza gets backstabbed next. Then the two challenge threats Jason and James are booted. Natalie is taken out next as the remaining contestants see her as a threat to win it all. Our final four is Jonathan, Chet, Alexis and the forgotten Cirie. Alexis gets booted as everyone see her as the most likeable of the remaining four, leaving Jonathan, Chet and Cirie to face the jury.

10. Amanda
9. Joel
8. Eliza
7. Jason

6. James

5. Natalie

4. Alexis

3. Cirie

2. Chet
1. Jonathan

I think Jonathan could win it all.

Survivor: China

So I don't know if I'll be blogging about the upcoming season. Maybe I'll decide after I see episode one.

The first boot has been spoiled already, but from what I can tell, so far that's it. Which is good.

My preseason prediction of the winner is Dave Cruser.

It's finally over...

I doubt anyone is still reading this blog (since there's not much to read), but just for the sake of completeness, here are my finale picks.

Final five boot: Boo

Final four boot: Yau Man (Dreamz wins immunity and breaks his word)

Final three who face the jury: Cassanda, Dreamz, Earl

Rocky votes: Earl
Lisi votes: Earl
Michelle votes: Earl
Edgardo votes: Earl
Mookie votes: Earl
Alex votes: Earl
Stacy votes: Earl
Boo votes: Earl
Yau Man votes: Earl

Earl wins in a unanimous vote.

The editing pointed to an Earl win as far back as episode one when he was shown standing on top of the mountain and calling himself King of Fiji. There have been many other shots of him high above everyone else. If anyone else wins, it'll be shocking.

Edited to add:

This is what I wrote after the first episode in my confessional analysis:

Now let's talk about Earl. You didn't think I was going to forget him, didya? Earl got two amazing confessionals in this episode, either one of which would have me pointing to him as someone who was going to last a long time. Put together and I have to wonder if he wins this thing. His first confessional came near the beginning of the episode. He talked about how the island was their home and you want to check all of it out. It was interspersed with a scene of him on top of the island, smiling, and at one point he says "I'm the King of Fiji... of an unnamed island." Sounds like someone who could win this thing, right? Except it was followed by Dreamz saying "I'm standing the highest" and a shot of the kid standing a rock above Earl (and Rita and Anthony). So is this our endgame? Dreamz vs. Earl?

And now...

It's time for Stacy to go home...

I pick...

Alex to get the boot.There appears to be some disagreement this week, but Alex is most likely choice as he's alone and friendless.

I think I'll pick...

...Mookie to go home this week. It should be Alex or the Mookster and I think Alex will pull off something to keep himself alive another week.

I'm picking...

...Edgardo to get the boot.

Sounds like it'll be a cool episode. Too bad I foolishly read the spoiler ahead of time.

This week's pick

It appears Michelle gets Shii Anned this week.

This week's pick

Lisi goes home.

Shocking.

However, it appears there's some doubt about who gets booted next week. So that might be interesting. Maybe.