Sunday, February 18, 2007

Fiji Confessional Analysis, Episode 2

Episode two gives us clear indications who might be leaving from each tribe. Still haven't had a chance to do the point system. It's still percolating in my brain.

Dreamz - 3T, 1T/1D = 4T/1D
Boo - 1T, 3T = 4T
Alex - 2T, 2T = 4T
Edgardo - 2T/1D, 0T = 2T/1D
Cassandra - 2T, 0T =2T
Lisi - 1T, 1T = 2T
Gary - 1D, 0T = 1D
Liliana - 0T, 0T = 0T
Stacy - 0T, 0T =0T

Anthony - 4T, 3T/3D = 7T/3D
Rocky - 4T/2D, 2T/1D = 6T/3D
Earl - 4T, 4T = 8T
Sylvia - 2T/1D, 1T/3D = 3T/4D
Yau Man - 1T/1D, 2T = 3T/1D
Michelle - 1T, 1D = 1T/1D
Rita - 2D, 0T = 2D
Mookie - 0T, 1T = 1T

Erica - 2T/4D, 2T = 4T/4D
Jessica - 2T/1D

Let's look at Moto first. The only person in danger based on confessional analysis is Gary who has only one D and no Ts. Half of the tribe disappeared last episode with Cassandra, Edgardo, Stacy, and Lilliana getting zero confessionals. Stacy and Lilliana haven't had a single confessional yet. Honestly, that's almost as bad as getting a lot of Ds. I don't think either one will last past merge. While Dreamz had only two confessionals, one of them went on forever. I've seen people get four confessionals in an episode that in total didn't last as long as one of Dreamz's confessionals. His story is important to the show, but it seems to be a very personal story and not really one that connects to the game as a whole. Boo and Lisi are the main narrators of the tribe with Alex taking a smaller role this episode. His confessionals were about Boo's mishaps in contrast to the other two who talked about the tribe as a whole. Of course, Alex's confessionals in episode one were about the tribe as a whole, so it's safe to say all three of them are narrators at this point.

Over at Ravu things are getting ugly. But first, the good stuff. Earl is clearly a long term player. Did you catch the shot of him on top of the mountain when they were looking for food? They want us to like him. He got four Ts and no Ds. I wouldn't call him the main narrator for the tribe however. That role is clearly Anthony and like many pre-merge narrators before him, I wonder if he'll be the one to get booted right around the merge. Rocky is a narrator, too, but they don't count on him for what's going on as much as they do Anthony. If it were a broadcast booth, Anthony's the play by play guy and Rocky's the color commentary. One thing I find interesting is how it seems like Mookie is driving the decision making early on but he's not getting the confessionals to go with it. I don't have high hopes for Mookie. He strikes me as someone who will become the victim of a twist. He ends up getting sent to the other tribe and gets booted, for example. He's not an endgame player. As for who's in danger at Ravu, I can point to two people based on CA: Rita and Sylvia.

In danger for episode three:


No comments: