Saturday, February 24, 2007

Fiji Confessional Analysis, Episode 3

If I were doing a points system, which I can't seem to figure out, I would give Michelle extra points for her very long confessional and the humor in it ("My momma doesn't want me to die out here") and Dreamz because of his this-is-what-the-game-is-all-about confessional. But the point thing just doesn't work no matter which way I do it. Anyway, here's where we are after three episodes.

Alex - 2T, 2T, 2T/1D = 6T/1D
Dreamz - 3T, 1T/1D, 1T = 5T/1D
Boo - 1T, 3T, 1T = 5T
Cassandra - 2T, 0T, 1T =3T
Lisi - 1T, 1T, 1T = 3T
Edgardo - 2T/1D, 0T, 0T = 2T/1D
Stacy - 0T, 0T, 1T =1T
Gary - 1D, 0T, 0T = 1D
Liliana - 0T, 0T, 0T = 0T

Earl - 4T, 4T, 2T = 10T
Rocky - 4T/2D, 2T/1D, 2T = 8T/3D
Anthony - 4T, 3T/3D, 1D = 7T/4D
Yau Man - 1T/1D, 2T, 2T = 5T/1D
Rita - 2D, 0T, 2D = 4D
Michelle - 1T, 1D, 1T = 2T/1D
Mookie - 0T, 1T, 1D = 1T/1D

Sylvia - 2T/1D, 1T/3D, 4D = 3T/8D
Erica - 2T/4D, 2T = 4T/4D
Jessica - 2T/1D

At Moto, confessional analysis says Gary is at risk again. Not that that is any suprise after last episode made it clear he's not doing well. Other than that, the only person who stands out is Liliana who hasn't had a single confessional. There was one season where it seemed like every week the person who didn't talk at all got booted unexpectedly. I still think Gary is the more likely boot, but Liliana is the dark horse boot. Dreamz got a very important confessional. He said, "Our morale is up and their morale is down. Bam! There's it is right there... the whole game." At the other tribe we had Mookie questioning Anthony's will to win. The point seems to be that this is a mental game more than anything else. With the men dominating the game (only women have been booted so far), athletic prowess might be a wash, but whichever man has the internal strength is going to come out on top. Cassandra is being cast as the heart of the tribe; we're supposed to like her so I think she's got some legs. Lisi is the matter of fact narrator. Hard to say if she's going to go far. I am hoping to see more in depth confessionals soon as she is my pick to make it to the end. Stacy finally spoke which took her out of the danger land that Liliana finds herself in. Alex was chosen to narrate most of Gary's breakdown which points to him lasting longer in the game. Boo is a pretty steady narrator about how the tribe is feeling. If you compare his confessionals to Lisi's, at this point I'd pick Boo to go further because they are about more than facts.

At Ravu, Earl got an interesting confessional where he called his tribe "begging children". I am thinking he's not really in an alliance with any of them. I wonder if his alliance is actually on the other tribe and he's just trying to survive this disfunctional tribe until he can get back to his alliance. Michelle had only one confessional, but it was loooonnng. Mookie got one confessional but it was a D, which isn't good for him. However, Rita is clearly the next boot from their tribe with 4Ds. And she went her own way by voting against Earl; that's never a good sign. Like Boo at Moto, Yau Man talks about how their tribe is feeling. Rocky's main confessional this episode portrayed him as the guy who has fate turning on him. He talks about how the other tribe better watch out .... and then they lose the challenge. I doubt Rocky wins this thing. Anthony's personal arc seems to be really beginning this episode and from the preview, it looks like it continues next episode. In the first two episodes, he was a neutral narrator of the tribe. This episode he became a character in the action. The question is how long will his arc go? This could be the start of his climb to the winner's spot or it could be the start of a short arc. Hopefully next episode will give us some sort of clue.

So who could possibly win this thing based on editing of the first three episodes. It's still pretty wide open, but I think we can safely rule out: Stacy, Liliana, Gary and Edgardo (unless something major happens with him soon) at Moto. At Ravu, you can give up on Rocky, Michelle, Mookie and Rita. Who does that leave us with?

Yau Man

And finally, here's who's at risk for episode 4:

Liliana (long shot)

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