And it begins again

Obviously, I skipped Survivor China. It was a good season and I was pleased that Todd won. He was a good player and deserved his victory. Plus, he was a Survivor fan who posted on the boards and it was nice to see one of them win.

The next season that starts in February looks promising. Fans vs. Favorites (although I can only think of one poster who ever considered Johnny Fairplay a "favorite") has potential to be interesting. And it's better than a straight All Stars season like they did last time. I am rooting for the fans at this point, but of course that could change after episode 1.

As far as the Favorites go, I think Johnny Fairplay and Yau-Man will go early for completely different reasons. Everyone will want Fairplay gone because they can't stand him. And everyone will want Yau-Man gone because they know if he makes to the jury, he'll have a good shot of winning it all. And they can use the "we need a strong tribe" excuse to boot him pre-merge. As far as who could go far, I like James and Amanda, because no one will know them very well, and Cirie, because she'll be able to fly under the radar. I think Jonathan and Eliza, if they align, could be a formidable duo. They pull in James, Amanda and Cirie and they run it 'til the merge, at least.

A few other thoughts...

Most Likely to Flip and Support the Favorites: Eliza
Most Likely to Get Booted Because She Refuses to Ally with Men: Ami

Most Likely to Be The Victim of We Don't Need Another Challenge Hog: Ozzy

Most Likely to Have Absolutely No Game Whatsoever: Parvati
Most Likely to Annoy Everyone: Fairplay

And now onto the Fans...

Kathleen looks nuts in her picture. She's gone pre-merge. The other two I am predicting will be booted early are Tracy, Erik and Mary. I think Erik will end up like Ryan Shoulders from... whatever season that was - Pearl Islands, maybe? Anyway he'll be the nerdy guy who gets booted as a liability. Jeff Probst says this about Mary: "She's either going to learn where to fit in this group quickly or she's going to be on the outs for the whole time." My guess is she'll be on the outs. And Tracy is a builder and they never fare well once the structure has been created. I think the controlling alliance will be firefighter Joel, actor Michael, beauty pagaent coach Chet and enigma Natalie. Four is not a majority, so they'll have to pull in one more after a consensus first boot.

So all that being said, here is my unspoiled, total guess pre-season boot order:

The fans are very motivated to beat the favorites and that motivation carries them to victory in the first immunity challenge. First boot is easy - Fairplay is gone as the most annoying and useless in challenges. The favorites rally to win the second challenge and fans have to get rid of someone. They choose Mary who has never been able to fit in with any alliances. Third boot is Yau-Man of the favorites. Losing another challenge does sit well with Eliza and Jonathan, who formed an alliance. The favorites win two in a row and Tracy and Kathleen are quickly voted out by the ruling alliance of Joel, Michael, Chet and Natalie. Jason, Erik and Alexis see they are on the outside looking in. The fans win one and the favorites refuse to let Amber version 2 win All Stars version 2 and vote out Parvati. Then, of course, some sort of twist happens and people end up on the wrong tribe. It's impossible to guess who might be the victims of such a twist, but I'll say Ozzy and Erik get booted next. After that, we'll go with Ami. Over at fans, Michael is getting nervous about Joel as a challenge threat post-merge and when the actor tries to get the fireman voted out, the rest of his alliance sides with Joel and Michael is gone.

Pre-merge boot order:

20. Fairplay
19. Mary
18. Yau-Man
17. Tracy
16. Kathleen
15. Parvati
14. Ozzy
13. Erik
12. Ami
11. Michael

And then they merge. This is where Eliza and Jonathan make their biggest move and join forces with Chet, Natalie, and Alexis. They side with some of the fans and betray the favorites. Amanda is the first victim since James has immunity. Joel is taken out next as they agreed to eliminate one of each tribe first. Eliza gets backstabbed next. Then the two challenge threats Jason and James are booted. Natalie is taken out next as the remaining contestants see her as a threat to win it all. Our final four is Jonathan, Chet, Alexis and the forgotten Cirie. Alexis gets booted as everyone see her as the most likeable of the remaining four, leaving Jonathan, Chet and Cirie to face the jury.

10. Amanda
9. Joel
8. Eliza
7. Jason

6. James

5. Natalie

4. Alexis

3. Cirie

2. Chet
1. Jonathan

I think Jonathan could win it all.