I was going to post this at Survivor Blows, but there is some sort of internal server error. Which sucks. I don't know that anyone comes here anymore, but who knows, maybe someone will happen by...
So I am really liking this season. And I decided to try confessional analysis again to see if I could figure out who our winner will be. The way it works is this. I count the confessionals and divide them into two categories. Ts are ones that talk about the tribe and what's going on. Ds are specifically about the tribal dynamics and who is in danger of getting booted. What I have found is that people with more Ds go before people with more Ts. I also look for confessionals that are about the wonder of the location or meta-strategy confessionals. These often indicate the winner or at least someone who goes far. I used to put all this on a blog, but the really good seasons are in posts that blogger ate or behind the doors of a private board. (I started this back in season 3.) I should also note that I have not been reading Veruca's Editing thread so I may be unknowingly repeating stuff people are writing there. I like coming at this with a fresh perspective.
Matty – 3T, 0T, 0T, 2T, 4T, 2T, 3T/1D, 7T/1D = 21T/2D
Randy – 4T/2D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 1T/1D, 2D, 6T/2D = 15T/11D
Sugar – 1T, 0T, 6T/1D, 1T, 2T, 2T, 3D, 2T/1D = 14T/5D
Crystal – 3T, 0T, 1T/1D, 1T/2D, 3D, 4D, 1T/2D, 4T/2D = 10T/14D
Ken – 2T/2D, 1D, 0T, 2D, 1T/1D, 3T/2D, 3D, 2T/1D = 8T/12D
Susie – 0T, 0T, 0T, 2T, 0T, 1T, 1T, 1T/6D = 5T/6D
Charlie – 1T/1D, 2T/1D, 2D, 1D, 1T, 0T, 1D, 1T/1D = 5T/7D
Corinne – 2T, 1D, 3D, 0T, 0T, 1T/1D, 2D, 3D = 3T/10D
Bob – 2T, 0T, 1D, 0T, 0T, 1T, 2T, 0T = 5T/1D
I have say right now that I think Matty or Randy wins this season. Matty had an extremely important confessional in episode one. While everyone else was talking about themselves, he talked about Gabon being Earth's last Eden and how beautiful it is. He later talked about how the elephants are right outside their camp. Later on, when the elephant comes to visit in the daytime, Matty talks about it in reverential tones - it's "magnificent". He says it makes you appreciate the purity of Gabon. Later he talks about the idol as the apple in Eden and no one wants to be thrown out of Eden. Most recently, he had a confessional about how he's worried he doesn't have much time and every moment is valuable and he has to give it his all. With 21 Ts and only 2 Ds, he's being edited as our winner. If he doesn't make top 3, I'll be shocked.
Randy is the other person I like for a possible winner. While his edit isn't as striking as Matty's, he is the only person left who has had a confessional in every single episode. Randy's confessionals are often about his strategy. Early on he talks about sitting back and watching other people self destruct. Later on, he talks about how you have to adapt and this "crusty old man" can do it. Randy reminds me somewhat of Brian's edit from Thailand. Brian was always talking about his plan for winning and we're getting an inside view into Randy's strategy. And it's not just about specific happenings in the tribe, but meta-strategy confessionals that could be applicable to any season.
The final person who will go a long way in this game is Sugar, but I don't think she will win. We are meant to like her. She's emotional and we are meant to relate to her emotions. She has two journeys - one was the city girl who survives the outdoors - that story seems to be over, but watch for it to pop up again if times get hard. The other is the underestimated player who has more game than anyone gave her credit for. That story seemed over with the flip on Ace, but it's not over yet as she feels she was manipulated by Ken and Crystal. For her story to be complete, she is going to have to avenge Ace.
So who's not long for this game?
Corinne is one who will not win. Her Ds far outweigh her Ts. We're not getting anything from her beyond her thoughts on who should be booted and who her allies are. I could see her going soon especially since her increase in Ds happened in the last two episodes. Charlie is another who is not going to last long. Charlie's entire story was tied to Marcus. The only time we heard anything from him, it had to do with Marcus. Charlie will not last long.
Susie had a big spike in Ds last episode as well. This could be setting her up for a boot soon, but I wonder. She's had a lot of confessionals about making it to the Top 3. To me, it felt like we were getting the beginning of her story - a fight to make it to the end. I don't know whether she will make it or not, but if she were going soon, it would seem like that story would have started earlier. She also had both the wonder of the location confessional and the the meta-strategy confessional. In one episode she talked about her strategy was to work hard around camp. When they went on the helicopter ride, the people who got the "Wow, Gabon is amazing" confessionals were Bob (interesting...) and Susie. Charlie or Corinne could have been given that confessional, but they weren't. So if I had to guess, I'd say Susie makes it further than some people may think.
So what about Crystal and Kenny? Both have more Ds than Ts. Neither one is getting the confessionals that winners get. I pick them for early to mid-jury. And finally Bob. Bob could very well be the final member of the final 3. He's getting that under the radar edit of someone who may make it to the end with no chance of actually winning. It sure doesn't seem like he's going soon.
So according to confessional analysis, the most at risk are:
The safest are:
The one we'll know more about after this episode: